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HomeStartupSteve Clean Know-how, Innovation, and Nice Energy Competitors – Class 4- Semiconductors

Steve Clean Know-how, Innovation, and Nice Energy Competitors – Class 4- Semiconductors

This text first appeared in West Level’s Trendy Warfare Institute.  

We simply accomplished the fourth week of our new nationwide safety class at Stanford – Know-how, Innovation and Nice Energy CompetitorsJoe FelterRaj Shah and I designed the category to cowl how expertise will form all the weather of nationwide energy (America’s affect and footprint on the world stage).

In class 1, we realized that nationwide energy is the mix of a rustic’s diplomacy (gentle energy and alliances), info/intelligence, army energy, financial power, finance, intelligence, and legislation enforcement. This “entire of presidency method” is understood by the acronym DIME-FIL.  And after 20 years centered on counter terrorism, the U.S. is now engaged in nice energy competitors with each China and Russia.

In school 2 the category centered on China, the U.S.’s main nice energy competitor. China is utilizing all parts of nationwide energy: diplomacy (gentle energy, alliances, coercion), info/ intelligence (utilizing its financial leverage over Hollywood, controlling the Covid narrative), its army may and financial power (Belt and Highway Initiative) in addition to exploiting Western finance and expertise. China’s purpose is to problem and overturn the U.S.-led liberal worldwide order and exchange it with a neo-totalitarian mannequin.

The third class centered on Russia, which is asserting itself as an ideal energy challenger. We realized how Russia pursues safety and financial pursuits in parallel with its ideological goals. At occasions, these goals complement one another. At different occasions they conflict, Putin’s need to revive Russia into an ideal energy as soon as once more results in a overseas coverage that’s reverse the pursuits of the Russia individuals. As Putin himself has mentioned, “The collapse of the Soviet Union was a serious geopolitical catastrophe of the century,” and that quote gives a window to his worldview as he tries to remake Russia into an ideal energy as soon as once more.”

Having lined the weather of nationwide energy (DIME-FIL) and China and Russia, the category now shifts to the influence industrial applied sciences have on DIME-FIL. At this time’s subject – Semiconductors.

Meet up with the category by studying our intro to the category, and summaries of Lessons 1, 2 and 3.

Class 4 Required Readings:

Silicon Valley, the Navy, and the Journey to the Fourth Industrial Revolution

Moore’s Legislation & the International Semiconductor Trade

Semiconductor Case Research

Studying Project Questions:

Decide one of many under questions and reply in roughly 100 phrases, based mostly on the required readings. Please be aware that this project shall be graded and rely in the direction of course participation.

  1. Describe the roles of Fred Terman, William Shockley, and Fairchild Semiconductor within the genesis of Silicon Valley. Who had a larger function in creating Silicon Valley, Fred Terman or the Traitorous Eight?
  2. How would you characterize China’s try and catch-up within the semiconductor business? Do you suppose China can credibly catch TSMC (with out an invasion of Taiwan)? Why or why not?

Dialogue Questions

  1. Put your self within the footwear of Mark Liu, chairman of TSMC: Do you view China as extra of a competitor or buyer – and why?
  2. Now think about you’re the NSC Senior Director with duty for expertise technique. What’s the very first thing the U.S. Gov’t ought to do relating to semiconductors?

Class 4: Visitor Speaker
Our visitor speaker for our fourth class was John Hurley, former Member of the President’s Intelligence Advisory Board, an knowledgeable on semiconductors and provide chains, and former Captain, U.S. Military.

Lecture 4

In case you can’t see the slides, click on right here

Slide 4. The important function of semiconductors in nice energy competitors. Each our industrial and army programs are depending on semiconductors. China spends extra on semiconductor imports than it does on oil. We framed the advances in expertise as a part of the 4th industrial revolution. Slides 5-7. We reminded the scholars of the function the DoD and IC performed at Stanford turning it into an outward-facing college, which kick-started expertise entrepreneurship right here in Silicon Valley.

Slides 11th of September Twin-use expertise. For the primary time in 75 years, federal labs and our prime contractors are now not main innovation in lots of important applied sciences together with AI, machine studying, autonomy, biotech, industrial entry to house, and so on. Speedy advances in these areas are actually occurring by way of industrial companies – many in China. It is a radical change in the place superior expertise comes from. Within the U.S., the federal government is painfully studying the way to reorient its necessities and acquisition course of to purchase these industrial, off-the-shelf applied sciences. (Merchandise which can be offered commercially and to the DoD are known as “dual-use.”)

Slide 15. Semiconductor business. We started a deep dive into semiconductors by drawing the map of the semiconductor business (Slides 3-15 from this required studying.) 5 corporations present nearly all of the wafer fab tools wanted to make chips. TSMC is the main fab for manufacturing logic chips. (Slides 32-33 from this required studying.) Of the 29 new fabs beginning development in 2021-22, over half are in China and Taiwan.

Slide 16. TSMC Case. We took the category by way of the TSMC case research and mapped out the roles and pursuits of TSMC, China, Intel, and the U.S. Slides 17-18. We mentioned China’s drive for semiconductor independence, U.S. export controls on Huawei (why and its penalties,) the assorted constituencies of a U.S. semiconductor coverage (Commerce Division, DoD, U.S. chip makers, U.S. semi tools suppliers, and so on.), whether or not TSMC’s success makes Taiwan roughly safe, given China’s targets of reunification with Taiwan.

Slide 19-20. Coverage.  How do resolution makers formulate coverage? Does it begin by asking “What drawback will we wish to resolve?” Utilizing semiconductors for instance, is it China’s entry to U.S. expertise?  Or is it China embedding this superior U.S.-designed expertise into their army programs? Or what occurs to TSMC and Western entry to superior expertise if China quarantines or invades Taiwan?

How do coverage makers choose and slender an issue? Is it based mostly on the worth the coverage provides for recognized stakeholders? Is it a private ardour/curiosity? Particularly for China and semiconductors, what are potential answer concepts? Export controls? Stronger CFIUS rules? How do you bear in mind stakeholder suggestions (DoD, Commerce Division, industrial companies)? And when you create a coverage, how do you successfully implement it?

Slide 21 -23. Class midterm project: Assume you’re a coverage maker. Write a 2,000-word coverage memo that describes how a U.S. competitor is utilizing a selected expertise  (semiconductors, AI, autonomy, cyber, and so on.) to counter U.S. pursuits. Suggest how the U.S. ought to reply.

Slides 25- 32 Group Tasks. We had a number of groups discuss their learnings from their out-of-the constructing interviews. Crew ShortCircuit (Slide 29) is engaged on how the U.S. ought to enhance its potential to design and produce semiconductors, and develop and retain related expertise. They heard from a professor that the ratio of Stanford college students taking software program versus {hardware} programs was 10-to-1 software program, an entire reversal from a long time in the past. We mentioned whether or not  1) that was true or simply anecdotal 2) if true, was it the identical in different analysis universities, 3) why it occurred (software program startups are getting funded at obscene valuations)? 4) and how much incentives and insurance policies could be wanted to alter that, and 5) the place within the worth chain these is likely to be handiest (college students, enterprise capitalists, authorities, and so on.)

Subsequent week: Synthetic Intelligence / Machine Studying

Classes Discovered

  • Semiconductors are the oil of the 21st All economies run on them.
  • Semiconductors are China’s greatest imports
  • China’s roadmap for constructing an indigenous semiconductor business and accelerating chip manufacturing is the Nationwide Built-in Circuit Plan
    • The purpose is to satisfy its native chip demand by 2030
  • The U.S. relies on TSMC, situated in Taiwan, for its most superior logic chips
    • China claims Taiwan is a province of China
    • TSMC will construct a fab in Arizona, however it would signify solely 2% of its capability
  • What are U.S. coverage makers’ choices?

11/02/2021 Know-how, Innovation, and Nice Energy Competitors – Class 4 – Semiconductors



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